Election day is August 18, 2026. Three of five commission seats are on the ballot. This analysis is built from the city's official candidate filings (all 43 campaign-treasurer reports through P4, covering activity through July 17), the Martin County Supervisor of Elections, the City Charter, and verified press coverage. Companion page: Campaign Money Report.
Stuart is a majority-wins city, not a plurality city. Charter Sec. 7.05(d)(2): a candidate must take a majority of the group's vote in the August regular election. If no one does, the top two meet in a runoff on state general-election day — November 3, 2026 (Sec. 7.05(b)).
Every Stuart race since at least 2022 has been two-way, so a majority was mathematically guaranteed and the runoff rule went unnoticed. In 2026 it is live: Group 5 is a three-way race. If incumbent Eula Clarke is held under 50% in August, that race — and possibly control of the commission's direction — is decided in November by an electorate roughly twice the size.
Also in the charter: 12-consecutive-year term limits (Sec. 2), and the resign-to-run rule under which Christopher Collins gave up the Group 3 seat and the mayor's gavel this spring to run for Martin County Commission District 2 — the vacancy that created the only open seat on this ballot.
| Race | Candidate | Profile | 2022 result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Group 1 | Campbell Rich Incumbent | Group 1 commissioner; former mayor; retired certified financial planner | Won open seat, ~54.7% |
| Will Laughlin | Asset management (Lochinvar Capital) | Lost Group 5 to Clarke, 46.6% | |
| Group 3 (open) | Merritt Matheson | Former mayor & commissioner | Lost seat to Collins by 95 votes |
| Derreck Ogden | IT/cybersecurity firm owner; "Save Stuart" slow-growth platform | First run | |
| Group 5 | Eula Clarke Incumbent | Attorney; multi-term commissioner, former mayor | Beat Laughlin, 53.4% |
| Kylie Micciche | Business owner/CEO | First run | |
| Dayne Oldenborg | Resident since 2020 | First run |
outside contributions candidate self-funding/loans. Totals are each candidate's certified "to date" figures; splits estimated from itemized schedules.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Self-funded | What the donor rolls show |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rich | $15,500 | $7,364 | $0 | Retiree-heavy; nine $1,000 max-outs; four real-estate/investment LLCs gave $810 in-kind each for the kickoff; Chamber in-kind. $4,600 mail program launched in mid-July. |
| Laughlin | $4,370 | $1,544 | $1,300 | Only ~10 itemized gifts. Notable: ex-mayor Chris Collins gave $500. No visible mail or sign program — spending is cards, shirts, processing fees. |
| Matheson | $36,901 | $14,784 | $2,500 | ~93 itemized gifts; 17 at the $1,000 max including the Kiplingers (Sewalls Point), Stuart Toyota's Woods, attorneys, healthcare and real-estate LLCs. Professional operation: Firefly PR ($5.5k), phone program ($3.6k), $3k sign buy. |
| Ogden | $12,278 | $8,884 | $10,250 | ~84% self-funded ($10k personal loan). Outside money is ~$2k in true small-dollar gifts (his $100 cap holds). Chris Collins gave $100. Truck wrap, signs, heavy ground game. |
| Clarke | $17,647 | ~$4,484 | $500 | 63 itemized gifts, broad mix: five $1,000 max-outs (attorneys, broker), builder/contractor/realtor money, plus genuine small-dollar retiree support incl. out-of-state family. $2,500 print buy. Bookkeeping is sloppy (see caveats). |
| Micciche | $1,060 | $1,022 | $300 | Fort Pierce small-business checks; spending on Stuart Local social ads and Martin County GOP event admissions. |
| Oldenborg | $1,161 | $823 | $240 | True shoestring: gas, library printing, thrift-store clothes, one $260 sign order. Biggest donor: Walter Loyd, $500. |
The donor rolls show this is a proxy war between two networks, fought across all three races.
One amusing hedge: retiree Allen Milam gave $1,000 to challenger Laughlin and $1,000 to establishment favorite Matheson.
Everything measurable favors the incumbent (and former mayor): a proven ~55% citywide floor, a 3.5:1 money lead, zero self-funding need, an active mail program, and a challenger whose one citywide run produced a 7-point loss and whose 2026 fundraising ($4,370, a third of it his own loans) shows no growth. The Collins network's $500 is a signal of intent, not a war chest. Confidence: medium-high. Residual risk: a citywide anti-incumbent wave; with ~3,600 voters, no race here is ever truly safe.
The marquee race, and the commission's direction likely turns on it. Matheson has the largest war chest of any candidate ($36.9k), 17 max-out donors, professional PR/phone/sign operations, and universal name recognition. But he lost this exact seat by 95 votes in 2022 to precisely the coalition Ogden now courts — and Ogden is matching effort with a $10k personal loan, a truck wrap, a visible ground game, and a clean populist contrast: his outside money is genuinely small-dollar under a self-imposed $100 cap, against Matheson's donor roll of attorneys and real-estate LLCs. If August is about growth and development, Ogden can win it. If it's about experience and the Collins era's messy end, Matheson returns. Confidence: low — genuine toss-up.
Clarke has a 16:1 money advantage over either challenger, deep incumbency, and a genuinely broad donor base. Neither challenger has mounted a visible campaign beyond retail effort. The only live question is arithmetic: can two challengers together hold Clarke under 50%? If yes, the charter forces a November 3 runoff against the top challenger in front of a much larger, more casual electorate — a wilder card than August. On the evidence (two near-zero-resource challengers), Clarke clearing 50% outright is the modal outcome. Confidence: medium-high for ultimately retaining the seat; medium for winning outright in August.